Waxing geopolitical.

Russia has taken the Crimean Peninsula and with it dominion over important ports on both the Azov Sea,and the Black Sea, including Sevastopol and Kerch. That annexation extends their control of the northern shores of the Black Sea and assures safe passage through the Kerch Strait between the Azov and the Black. And it now appears that they have set their sights on the Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts of Ukraine.

Taking Donetsk would give them more firm control of the northern reaches of the Azov, including the port of Mariupol, while taking Lugansk provides protection of the N and NE approaches to Donetsk. Fighting in and around the city of Kharkov betrays an intent to seize the Karkhov Oblast as protection of Donetsk to the N and NNW and if they also incorporate the Zaporizhia Oblast to the south of Donetsk they’ll have de facto sole possession of the Azov.

Secure access to and control of the oil and gas fields which are the primary sources of Russian state wealth are the impetus for the takeovers and the land grab is a textbook piece of opportunism. Ukraine clearly cannot prevent such incursions and, since it’s not a part of NATO, cannot call for effective relief from her Black Sea neighbors Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey, which are NATO signatories.

Unfortunately, out of those three, only Turkey actually matters very much and she’s got troublesome neighbors to the east on her side of the Caucasus as well as ISIL problems along her borders with Syria and Iraq to the south. Throw in shared but divided regional religious loyalties and she’s seriously impaled on the horns of a dilemma – Does she wrestle the Russian Bear or fly with the American Eagle?

I’m betting it’s the latter and wondering what may the quid pro quo…

9/9/14